Mozambique is on track to overtake Nigeria as Africa’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter by the early 2030s, according to a new analysis by global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which estimates that up to $45 billion could be invested in the country’s LNG sector between 2026 and 2033.
The assessment, published this week, projects that if ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG reaches a final investment decision (FID) by early 2027, Mozambique’s four current projects could deliver 38 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) of capacity by 2032, enough to eclipse Nigeria’s current production and establish Mozambique as the continent’s dominant LNG player.
FROM FORCE MAJEURE TO FOUR PROJECTS UNDERWAY
The recovery marks a dramatic turnaround for a sector that was brought to a standstill five years ago when regional insecurity in Cabo Delgado forced TotalEnergies to halt construction of its flagship onshore project.
Today, the picture is radically different. Coral Sul, the world’s fifth floating LNG (FLNG) project, has been operating at its 3.4 mmtpa capacity since reaching plateau in 2023. Its success gave the Area 4 partners the confidence to sanction Coral Norte, an enhanced replica targeting first LNG in 2028.
Onshore progress has been more challenging but is now accelerating. TotalEnergies sanctioned the 13.1 mmtpa Mozambique LNG project in 2019, but security concerns led to four and a half years of force majeure. Construction restarted in January 2026 after conditions stabilised, and the project is now around 45% complete, with first LNG targeted for 2029.
ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG was redesigned during the delay, replacing two large trains with 12 mini-trains to increase capacity to 18.6 mmtpa. The project is targeting FID in late 2026 or early 2027, with a cost of around $27 billion, which would make it Africa’s largest-ever energy development.
A SECOND WAVE OF INVESTMENT
Wood Mackenzie estimates that around $45 billion could be invested between 2026 and 2033 to complete Coral Norte and the two onshore projects. But that is likely to be only the first instalment.
Around 75 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas remains uncommercialised across Areas 1 and 4, enough to support Mozambique LNG Phase 2, a third Area 4 FLNG vessel, and potentially a further joint development of resources straddling the two blocks. Together, these projects could add 30 to 35 mmtpa of capacity and push national output above 70 mmtpa by 2040.
This would be enough for Mozambique to overtake Canada and become the world’s fourth-largest LNG producer, while lifting cumulative investment beyond $90 billion between 2026 and 2040.
WHY GLOBAL BUYERS ARE WATCHING
East Africa’s location outside the Persian Gulf, combined with its proximity to South Asian markets, has made Mozambique increasingly attractive as recent geopolitical disruption reshapes buyers’ risk calculations. Both Area 1 and Area 4 include Asian national oil companies among their non-operating partners, including CNPC, PTTEP, and three Indian national oil companies, alongside ADNOC’s XRG.
The stakes are equally high for the operators. Wood Mackenzie estimates that Mozambique could account for 16% of Eni’s upstream value by 2030. It could also become TotalEnergies’ highest-value African country and CNPC’s most valuable position worldwide if all four sanctioned projects and the follow-on phases proceed as planned.
EXECUTION RISKS REMAIN
None of this is guaranteed. Conditions in Cabo Delgado have improved but remain uncertain. Government approvals for Mozambique LNG’s revised budget and Rovuma LNG’s amended development plan are still outstanding, while Mozambique’s newly amended Petroleum Law creates further uncertainty over domestic gas obligations and pricing.
Financing may be the biggest test of all. Wood Mackenzie estimates that total capital expenditure could exceed $75 billion if Rovuma LNG and the three follow-on projects proceed, with around $50 billion required from external lenders. This funding will be needed as over 100 mmtpa of new global LNG capacity is set to reach the market by 2030, meaning every year of delay narrows the window before that wave.